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DOW 9000?

Posted by btr Wed, 07 May 2003 00:44:45 GMT

DOW has passed 8500 and NASDAQ has passed 1500. We shall see how the market reacts on CSCO earning report (1c over estimate and flat guidence for Q4, traded lower AH).

SOHU closed lower @18.48. Long SOHU May 20 Put. Added GSF May 20 Calls. Shorted MSFT May 25 Calls and Long MSFT June 27.5 Calls.

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Pause after big move

Posted by btr Tue, 06 May 2003 00:26:47 GMT

It looks like all indexes pause a little today.

SUNW continues to move up with heavy volume.

SOHU is at its peak (19.15) since IPO. It has made massive moves from the risk of delisting last year when it went under $1.

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Which pond are you in?

Posted by btr Sat, 03 May 2003 18:09:24 GMT

Here's an interesting article. Here I copied portion of it. We can figure out which pond we are in.

NAME POND HOLDING PERIOD FOOD SOURCE QUALITIES
Investors Random No clue No Clue No Clue
Mutual Funds Daily Weeks Investors Huge amounts of money, Marketing/research groups, and a tackle box full of Investrador lures.
Swing Traders Daily Days Investors Smart, careful. Decision-making after market hours.
Institutions 15 Minute Hours Mutual Funds Deep pockets, Move Markets over short timeframes, very astute, inside information.
Day Traders 5 Minute Minutes 15 Minute Fish Waits for rock solid plays. Decisive. Decision making during market hours.
Momentum 2 Minute Seconds Investradors Timing High Volume, High Volatility Stocks.
Scalpers 2 Minute Seconds Everyone Happy just going click, click, click all day long.

Basically, you are taking money from the timeframe above you and giving money to the timeframe below you. For example, if you measure your holding period by minutes, then trade off a 5 minute chart. However, you need to monitor the 15 minute and daily charts for opportunities. Likewise, use the 2 minute chart to monitor that pond for hazards. But remember if you are playing in the 5 minute pond then stay there. Don't move from pond to pond.

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Big day for SUNW

Posted by btr Fri, 02 May 2003 19:52:53 GMT

Wow, SUNW went up 12.31% with 130MM shares changing hands. Average volume is typically around 50MM. There's a buyout rumor too along with 5MM block trade (possible institution order). Sold some holdings in the range of 3.54-3.73 and held rest of it. It's building a nice base around 3.3 before this breakout. It will be interesting to see what's behind today's move.

DOW closed at 8,582.68 with lower than average volume; NASDAQ ended at 1,502.88 with average volume; S&P 500 ended at 930.08; Russel 2000 ended at 407.67; all indexes are right sitting at resistence.

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Fear & Greed

Posted by btr Fri, 02 May 2003 01:08:50 GMT

There was a big sell off this morning on LOWS. My put position finally turned positive. Out of fear that it might bounce back, half position was closed at small gain. Yet, looking at the daily chart, it's likely that it may test 50 SMA. It's still closed lower than the open. The greedy side of me decided to keep the rest of the position. In hindsight, keeping 1/3 position might be better idea or taking the profit by closing the position entirely. Let's see how it goes tomorrow.

Long GSF May 20C; added SLB May 40P.

OAKMX: it's still in the short-term uptrend since its breakout of long-term downtrend. Resistence at 31.55.

LSCRX: it's right at resistence and overbought condition.

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Swing Trades 401(k) Portfolio

Posted by btr Thu, 01 May 2003 02:24:04 GMT

I learned from co-worker that our company's 401(k) plan allows end-of-day trading. Previously I thought it would only post transactions once every month, which would make swing trade very hard. My plan is to select a few mutual funds as trading vehicles and swing trade them. Holding time will be weeks or months. The goal is to catch big trends. All cashes will be swept into GIC fund accruing interest daily.

Sold 30% position on OAKMX at DOW resistence level 8500; OAKMX follows DOW closely; sell 1/2 position at next level 8700-8800 or if current uptrend reverses.

Hold LSCRX which follows RUT closely. It's still in uptrend.

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Breakout has chance

Posted by btr Wed, 30 Apr 2003 18:48:22 GMT

Although the volume is not heavy, it has bullish bias.

Closed GSF May 22.5P - it bounced back a little, but close to support and may reverse; added more SLB May 40P - is that breakout out of bull flag?; scaling out LOW May 42.5P

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Breakout to the upside from here?

Posted by btr Wed, 30 Apr 2003 04:14:38 GMT

Nasdaq needs to break 1500 and DOW needs to break 8900. DOW has substantial resistence around 9000. Long GSF May 22.5P, SLB May 40P, AMZN May 27.5P and LOW May 42.5P, MSFT May 27.5C; Short MSFT May 25C.

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