Dow Jones Industrial Down More than 200 points
Posted by btr Fri, 22 Jan 2010 01:48:01 GMT
As expected in the last post, it reached the resistance level and came down in a big way.
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Short Term Bond Fund VFSTX
Posted by btr Tue, 08 Sep 2009 00:19:00 GMT
Here we took a look at one of Vanguard Bond Funds: VFSTX. Yield 4.41%; YTD return 10%; investment grade corporate bonds; average maturity 2.6 yr.
It suffered a 10% drop in price in 2008. The actual return was -5%, which was big in short term investment grade bond fund.
What was the cause of that big drop? Client redemption? Maybe considering credit crisis occurred last year. A few bond holdings went under? Maybe too. Had it owned Lehman Brother, for example.
It’s quite interesting that it has a unusual V-shape recovery after the drop. Obviously the relative higher yield has been attracting a lot of investors looking for better returns on their short term investment. Has it also attracted a lot of people who are basically using it as money market funds? Maybe.
Another reason for the recovery might be the valuation of its certain holdings has recovered since the credit crisis.
For comparison, here’s Fidelity FBNDX chart, which showed similar drop last year.
If you have owned similar fund, you probably want to pay closer attention to its price movement.
Dow Jones Industrials Retreated
Posted by btr Thu, 14 May 2009 01:46:00 GMT
It’s down more than 180 points. If the current uptrend line is broken, the first support is at 8000-8100 level, which could become a good base to build some long positions if the worst is over. Let’s watch closely as overall it’s oversold at this point. The V shape bounce needs some time to consolidate even we’re entering a new uptrend.
The next support is 7500, which is previous low before this last leg down.
Dow Jones Broke Down
Posted by btr Tue, 24 Feb 2009 05:13:00 GMT
Dow Jones Industrial has broken its major support around 8000. There’s no clear support but some round number at 7000 or 6000. 5600 is a support.
Where will the market go from here? Not sure but we can try to read the market and right now it’s going south.
Is the worst over yet?
Posted by btr Sun, 21 Dec 2008 01:05:00 GMT
Dow Jones Industrial Average has been up and down for the past many weeks but it appears that it has moved towards sideways. As recession has been officially announced and confirmed, how much has the market priced in all the bad news?
Certainly investors are looking for values after significant drops, but it’s not clear that if it will range bound between somewhere below 8000 and somewhere above 9000.
If it builds a long base above 8000 and consolidates the base, we may see more upside but we need to see the confirmation.
PMCGX back in 1998 level
Posted by btr Tue, 22 Feb 2005 02:46:40 GMT
PMCGX has followed the overall market and resumed its ascending. Currently, it's in overbought condition indicated by both RSI and Stochastic. As we can see from prior history, the overbought or oversold condition could stay there for a while. I do plan to close or at least to square some money off the table next week as our 401(k) plan will have a week of black out period when the plan is to be adjusted with a few changes. As we all knew from history such as Enron debacle, black out period could be very risky although the mutual funds are much more diversified in this regard. One company imploding would not make a fund to plummet.
Open a position in PMCGX
Posted by btr Wed, 05 Jan 2005 21:10:22 GMT
Well, New Year has not brought much upside. Instead, it has wiped out last month's gain! I opened a position in PMCGX in 401k account as it's in over sold condition. I expect that the current uptrend will continue, I may add more until it goes below 22 where my stop loss is set.
Open a position in PMCGX
Posted by btr Wed, 05 Jan 2005 21:10:22 GMT
Well, New Year has not brought much upside. Instead, it has wiped out last month’s gain! I opened a position in PMCGX in 401k account as it’s in over sold condition. I expect that the current uptrend will continue, I may add more until it goes below 22 where my stop loss is set.
JANSX and PMCGX
Posted by btr Thu, 25 Nov 2004 16:23:17 GMT
JANSX continued to move up after a little dip. I actually closed my JANSX position (+6.13%) at that dip as I thought that it had reversed and didn't want to wait for another confirmation. It has a major resistence at 24.
PMCGX is at 52-week high right now. I closed it at the same time when I closed JANSX. Bad move! The next resistence is at 25.
As we approach the 2004 year end, my current 401(k) has 75% in a stable value fund (earning a little over 4%) and 25% in international funds with exposure to Europe and Asia Pacific. I have always maintained at least 25% cash in this account. The overall return is YTD 9.6%, compared to JANSX 1.75%, PMCGX 14.13%, TEMFX 13.18%, AEPGX 14.43%, S&P 500 about 6%, QQQ about 8%, RUT about 14% and INDU about 1%.
RUT
Posted by btr Sun, 03 Oct 2004 18:45:15 GMT
RUT has broken its downtrend line. I have a remaining position on PMCGX which tracks RUT closely and was planning to close it around 21. Let's wait and see if this move can last into next week.
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